The spring home-buying season is kicking off in the midst of the most painful real estate recession in decades.
April 30, 2008 by Under_Priced_Lu... commentThe spring home-buying season is kicking off in the midst of the most painful real estate recession in decades, with prices tumbling and many Americans losing their homes to foreclosure because they can't pay their mortgages. As buyers and sellers begin what's typically an energetic time for real estate activity, USA TODAY convened a virtual roundtable of housing experts and everyday Americans for an online conversation.
The participants shared their perspectives with USA TODAY's Stephanie Armour. Questions and answers have been edited for clarity and space.
USA TODAY: Recently, the National Association of Realtors reported the first signs that sales might, at last, be perking up in some areas. Yet, home prices are still falling, and federal officials are taking steps to try to ease the crisis. What should buyers and sellers expect as the spring selling season gets underway?
Mark Zandi: It will be another tough spring season for sellers. Home sales are stabilizing only because sellers are aggressively cutting prices. Moreover, there is substantial competition for home sellers from the mounting number of foreclosures.
Lawrence Yun: Consumers need to find out what is going on at the local level and not necessarily take national headline numbers as a point of reference. Sellers tend to be more stubborn in facing the reality of the market, so people who really need to sell need to come down on prices, given the high inventory and seller competition.
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Joel Naroff: Prices will likely continue falling in many areas, but I don't expect sellers to be willing to cut as much as needed. Thus, there is likely to be only a small improvement in sales as we move through summer.
Cher Murphy: I think sellers will need to lower their prices in order to sell, and in some cases drastically. I lowered my home by $70,000 in hopes of a quick sale … still waiting. I do think it is a perfect time for buyers to buy a house at a steal. With the summer upon us, things will pick up a bit, as this is a great time for moves with the kids out of school.
Boosting the market
USA TODAY: What needs to happen to stimulate the housing market?
Naroff: Since so many people need the equity in their homes to buy new homes, the gridlock we now have will not be eased until confidence in the market returns. I am not sure how that happens. Single-family starts are off almost 65% from the peak and have rarely been this low over the past 50 years. The issue is not that there are a lot of homes being built; it's the inability to sell the homes, be they new or existing, that are already on the market. I agree it is a pricing issue.
Dean Baker: Prices have to fall. We had a bubble that got prices hugely out of whack with the fundamentals. We need a real price decline of between 30% and 40% from the 2006 peaks. We're about halfway there.
Leslie Sellers: One way we can help restore public confidence is to focus attention on the independence and competency of professional appraisers who provide an impartial valuation. We need to look more at fixing the system that caused this mess, as much as or more than the short-term fix.
Murphy: More aid by the government. It is really a tough time for homeowners who are walking away from their homes which, in turn, are being auctioned off for pennies.
Zandi: Home builders need to cut construction further, home sellers need to cut prices further and the federal government needs to come forth with more targeted efforts to help hard-pressed homeowners facing foreclosure stay in their homes.
Jeremy Brandt: Consumers need to have the confidence that their local market is not going to continue to fall — and the credit markets must become more fluid. We see many buyers who are ready to buy and should qualify but can't get a loan. A government bailout of housing is not the answer.
Melissa Bruno: The prices need to correct, and there needs to be more responsibility when it comes to lending. We're just starting this whole process, and it shocks me when I see my peers buying out of their means.
Yun: Overshooting downward can lead to unnecessary loss in economic activity. Prices do need to come down in some markets. But a measurable overshooting downward introduces a host of new problems, including additional pressure on foreclosures. We need to genuinely think of bringing legitimate buyers back into the market. These are buyers with financial capacity. I believe a home-buyer tax credit for any home purchase will go a long way in raising sales, lowering inventory and lessening foreclosures













